CERES case studies
CERES scientific papers
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Climate risk to European fisheries and coastal communities
CERES researchers present climate risk analyses for 1) 105 ocean-dependent communities and 2) 380 fishing fleets in Europe. Their unique approach provides a perspective over the climate risks in this diverse and populous continent that is unprecedented in both its...
An integrated model for aquaculture production, pathogen interaction, and environmental effects
CERES researchers developed a methodology for simulating three key determinants of aquaculture carrying capacity: husbandry, environmental effects, and disease, capable of scaling to any farm size: the Aquaculture, Biosecurity, and Carrying Capacity (ABC) framework....
Future Socio-Political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: A Common Framework Based on Shared-Socioeconomic-Pathways (SSPs)
It has proven extremely challenging for researchers to predict with confidence how human societies might develop in the future, yet managers and industries need to make projections in order to test adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to build resilience to...
Future Socio-Political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: An Operationalized Framework for Aquaculture Projections
Climate-driven changes in aquatic environments have already started to affect the European aquaculture sector’s most commercially important finfish and shellfish species. In addition to changes in water quality and temperature that can directly influence fish...
Fish abundance and catch data for the Northwest European Shelf and Mediterranean Sea from 2006 to 2098 derived from climate projections
The SS-DBEM is a mechanistic model, which means that it takes into account aspects of ecology (e.g. habitat preference, migration) and physiology (e.g. growth and reproduction) to determine biomass and distribution of fish species in response to changes in the...
CERES Synthesis report now available
The report identifies the risks, opportunities, and uncertainties of climate change for Europe’s fishery and aquaculture communities.
Linking individual physiological indicators to the productivity of fish populations: A case study of Atlantic herring
Physiological measures can help to identify environmental thresholds that constrain organismal-level performance. Relating these thresholds, in a cause-and-effect manner, to long-term changes in the vital rates (e.g. growth, survival, reproduction) of wild populations...
Changing fish distributions challenge the effective management of European fisheries
Changes in fish distribution are being observed across the globe. In Europe’s Common Fisheries Policy, the share of the catch of each fish stock is split among management areas using a fixed allocation key known as ‘Relative Stability’: in each management area, member...
Changes in the spawning habitat of two small pelagic fish in the Northwestern Mediterranean
CERES researchers investigated the effects of three sea surface oceanographic variables (temperature, salinity and chlorophyll a) on the abundance of eggs and larvae of two summer-spawning species in the NW Mediterranean sea, the anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and the...
Management Scenarios Under Climate Change – A Study of the Nordic and Barents Seas
The effects of increasing fishing pressure in combination with temperature increases in the Nordic and Barents Seas have been evaluated using an end-to-end model for the area forced by a downscaled RCP 4.5 climate scenario. The scenarios that have been applied have...
Combined effects of warming and acidification on accumulation and elimination dynamics of paralytic shellfish toxins in mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis
This study evaluated the impact of increasing seawater temperature and acidification on the accumulation/elimination dynamics of HAB-toxins in shellfish. The present work is the first assessing the combined effect of climate change drivers on accumulation/elimination...
The attitudes of Italian consumers towards jellyfish as novel food
CERES researchers designed a questionnaire to assess the jellyfish consumption attitude (JCA) of respondents and explore the effect of their individual traits (socio-demography, personality, behavior habits, neophobia, disgust sensitivity) on JCA. Gender, age, and...
Harmful Fouling Communities on Fish Farms in the SW Mediterranean Sea: Composition, Growth and Reproductive Periods
CERES researchers monitored community composition, growth rate and reproductive potential of biofouling on fish cages over two seasonal periods of fry cages farming, located in southern Spain (SW Alboran Sea), with a special focus on cnidarians. Biomass and community...
Ensemble projections of global ocean animal biomass with climate change
CERES scientists conducted standardised ensemble projections including six global fisheries and marine ecosystem models, forced with two Earth-system models and four emission scenarios in a fished and unfished ocean, to derive average trends and associated...
Surface Heat Budget over the North Sea in Climate Change Simulations
CERES researchers validated and analyzed an ensemble of regional climate change scenarios for the North Sea. Towards the end of the 21st century the projected North Sea SST increases by 1.5 ∘C (RCP 2.6), 2 ∘C (RCP 4.5), and 4 ∘C (RCP 8.5), respectively. Under this...
Critically examining the knowledge base required to mechanistically project climate impacts: A case study of Europe’s fish and shellfish
CERES researchers examined the data available in the published literature on the effects of climate change-related environmental factors on the most economically important marine and freshwater finfish and shellfish in Europe. First, a semi‐systematic literature...
Pelagic habitat and offspring survival in the eastern stock of Atlantic bluefin tuna
We test how an understanding of geographical variation in larval fitness in relation to temperature and habitat use could be a useful method to improve our understanding of recruitment and develop better indices of annual recruitment. The results have implications for...
Mediterranean jellyfish as novel food: effects of thermal processing on antioxidant, phenolic, and protein contents
CERES researchers showed that thermal treatment can be used as a first stabilisation step on three common Mediterranean jellyfish. This process affected protein and phenolic contents of their main body parts. The antioxidant activity was assessed in thermally treated...
Distinct gelatinous zooplankton communities across a dynamic shelf sea
In July 2015, 49 plankton samples were collected from 50 m depth to the surface, across five transects in the Celtic Sea, of which, four crossed the Celtic Sea Front. Two distinct gelatinous communities were found in this dynamic shelf sea: a cold water community in...
Harmful phytoplankton diversity and dynamics in an upwelling region (Sagres, SW Portugal) revealed by ribosomal RNA microarray combined with microscopy
This study couples traditional microscopy with 18S/28S rRNA microarray to improve the detection of HAB species and investigates the relation between HAB and the specific oceanographic conditions in the region. The findings were in agreement with the results from...
Temperate estuaries: their ecology under future environmental changes
This review shows the changes to the estuarine biota (the primary production, phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthic invertebrates, fish, and birds) resulting from that legacy but, in addition to considering current hazards, it aims to predict the consequences of future...
Putting on a bow-tie to sort out who does what and why in the complex arena of marine policy and management
In this paper CERES researchers advocate that a fully-structured approach using the IEC/ISO 31010 Bow-tie analysis will allow all elements to be integrated for a cost-effective system. This system is described with examples for the marine environment, will fulfil many...
Uncertainties in projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem driven by an ensemble of global climate models
This study focused on one of the most threatened coastal seas, the Baltic Sea, and estimated uncertainties in projections due to climate model deficiencies and due to unknown future greenhouse gas concentration, nutrient load and sea level rise scenarios. To address...
Social innovation – A future pathway for Blue growth?
This article examines European Blue Growth's adequacy to enable social innovation as a strategy for the use and management of marine resources. Social innovation is interpreted as the changing behaviour of a group of actors joined in a network, leading to new and...
Assessing social innovation across offshore sectors in the Dutch North Sea
The main aim of this article is to explore social innovation in maritime spatial planning. Instances of social innovation are assessed across three sectors in the Dutch North Sea: the offshore wind energy, the offshore mussel cultivation and the offshore seaweed...
Jellyfish Rhizostoma pulmo (Cnidaria): Biochemical Composition of Ovaries and Antibacterial Lysozyme-like Activity of the Oocyte Lysate
We investigated the biochemical composition of mature female gonads and lysozyme antibacterial activity of oocytes in the Mediterranean barrel jellyfish Rhizostoma pulmo. The occurrence of defense molecules is a crucial mechanism to grant healthy development of mature...
Predator Avoidance in the European Seabass After Recovery From Short-Term Hypoxia and Different CO2 Conditions
We experimentally evaluated the risk-taking behavior in juveniles of the European seabass (Dicentrachus labrax), an important commercial fisheries species after recovering from short-term hypoxia and different Our results show that recovery from short-term exposure to...
Harmful algal blooms and climate change: exploring future distribution changes
In this study, high resolution, downscaled shelf seas climate projections for the north-west European shelf were nested within lower resolution global projections, to understand how the distribution of harmful algae may change by the mid to end of century. Projections...
Seasonal variability of diet and trophic level of the gelatinous predator Pelagia noctiluca (Scyphozoa)
By use of a combination of stomach contents, stable isotope (SI) and fatty acid (FA) analyses, we tested the hypothesis that changes in the seasonal dietary sources of P. noctiluca parallel changes in the FA and SI composition. This study also revealed significant...
The Baltic Sea Atlantis: An integrated end-to-end modelling framework evaluating ecosystem-wide effects of human-induced pressures
We present a new framework, with a Baltic implementation of the spatially-explicit end-to-end Atlantis ecosystem model linked to two external models, to explore the different pressures on the marine ecosystem. We conclude that the Baltic Atlantis forms an initial...
Fish energy budget under ocean warming and flame retardant exposure
The main goal of this study was to assess, for the first time, the effects of warming (+ 5 °C) and accumulation of a polybrominated diphenyl ethercongener (BDE-209, brominated flame retardant) through dietary exposure on energy budget of the juvenile white seabream...
Baltic Sea ecosystem response to various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates
The Baltic Sea is a shallow, semi-enclosed brackish sea suffering like many other coastal seas from eutrophication caused by human impact. Hence, nutrient load abatement strategies are intensively discussed. With the help of a high-resolution, coupled...
A Prelimnary Survey on Perception of Turkish Aquaculture Stakeholders on Climate Change – Aquaculture Interactions
Climate change is expected to have direct and indirect impacts on aquaculture sector. Awareness building and understanding the perceptions of aquaculture stakeholders regarding the impact of climate change on aquaculture are important pillars of developing adaptation...
Projection of changes in productivity of pike-perch from Razim Lake under climate changes by VPA modelling
Photo: fishing in the Razim lake, by Ion Navodaru, INCDDD, CERES consortium Irina CERNIȘENCU and her colleagues from Danube Delta National Institute for Research (Institutul National de Cercetare-Dezvoltare Delta Dunarii , INCDDD), CERES Project partner have presented...
Successional dynamics of marine fouling hydroids (Cnidaria: Hydrozoa) at a finfish aquaculture facility in the Mediterranean Sea
Here two experiments, each with 36 panels, tested colonization (factors: depth, season of immersion) and succession (factors: depth, submersion duration) over one year. The results illustrate the potential importance of fouling hydroids and their medusae to the health...
Indicator-Based Geostatistical Models For Mapping Fish Survey Data
Marine research survey data on fish stocks often show a small proportion of very high-density values, as for many environmental data. This makes the estimation of second-order statistics, such as the variance and the variogram, non-robust. The high fish density values...
Atlantic bluefin tuna spawn at suboptimal temperatures for their offspring
In this study we analyse how offspring fitness constrains spawning phenology in a large migratory apex predator, the Atlantic bluefin tuna. The reproductive schedule of Atlantic bluefin tuna varies between spawning sites, suggesting plasticity to local environmental...
Combining sale records of landings and fishers knowledge for predicting métiers in a small-scale, multi-gear, multispecies fishery
We propose an approach for predicting the métier of any given fishing trip from its landing records. Métier predictions produced with the proposed approach are closer to the actual uses of fishers, providing better grounds for an improved management. Palmer M, Tolosa...
Impacts of Climate Change in the United Kingdom and Ireland (Book chapter)
Fisheries and aquaculture contribute substantially to the coastal economies of the United Kingdom (UK) and Ireland, and climate change is likely to have significant impacts. Documented effects on fisheries include both losses where availability of traditional stocks...
Consequences of Stinging Plankton Blooms on Finfish Mariculture in the Mediterranean Sea
Bosch-Belmar et al (2017)
Frontiers in Marine Science
Effects of warming rate, acclimation temperature and ontogeny on the critical thermal maximum of temperate marine fish larvae
Moyano et al (2017)
PlosOne
Fisheries
Pinnegar et al (2017)
MCCIP Science Review
Combining sale records of landings and fishers knowledge for predicting métiers in a small-scale, multi-gear, multispecies fishery
Palmer et al (2017)
Fisheries Research
Evaluation of Cyanea capillata Sting Management Protocols Using Ex Vivo and In Vitro Envenomation Models
This study sought to evaluate potential first aid care protocols using previously described envenomation models that allow for direct measurements of venom activity. We found that seawater rinsing, the most commonly recommended method of tentacle removal for this...
Environmental control of asexual reproduction and somatic growth of Aurelia spp. (Cnidaria, Scyphozoa) polyps from the Adriatic Sea
Hubot el al (2017)
PlosOne
North Atlantic oscillation affects the physical condition of migrating bullet tuna Auxis rochei (Risso, 1810) from the Western Mediterranean Sea
Muñoz-Expósito et al (2017)
Fisheries Research
“And DPSIR begat DAPSI(W)R(M)!” – A unifying framework for marine environmental management.
Despite the DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) approach being used for a long time, there is still confusion over the definition of its terms and so to be appropriate for current marine management, we contend that this confusion needs to be addressed. Our...
Designing a global assessment of climate change on inland waters: knowns and needs
Paukert et al (2017)
Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries
Assessing the Efficacy of First-Aid Measures in Physalia sp. Envenomation, Using Solution- and Blood Agarose-Based Models
Stings from the hydrozoan species in the genus Physalia cause intense, immediate skin pain and elicit serious systemic effects. There has been much scientific debate about the most appropriate first aid for these stings, particularly with regard to whether vinegar use...
“And DPSIR begat DAPSI(W)R(M)!” – A unifying framework for marine environmental management
Elliott et al (2017)
Marine Pollution Bulletin
From traits to life‐history strategies: Deconstructing fish community composition across European seas
The life history of a species is determined by trade‐offs between growth, survival and reproduction to maximize fitness in a given environment. Following a theoretical model, we investigate whether the composition of marine fish communities can be understood in terms...
From traits to life-history strategies: Deconstructing fish community composition across European seas
Pecuchet et al (2017)
Global Ecology and Biogeography
Comparing biological traits of anchovy and sardine in the Bay of Biscay: A modelling approach with the Dynamic Energy Budget
Based on most striking differences in biological and life history traits, i.e. size, spawning and feeding, we calibrated a bioenergetics model, based on the Dynamic Energy Budget theory, for Engraulis encrasicolus and Sardina pilchardus in the Bay of Biscay. This...
Reproduction and larval biology in tunas, and the importance of restricted area spawning grounds
Muhling et al (2017)
Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries
Reproduction and larval biology in tunas, and the importance of restricted area spawning grounds
We examine the spatial distributions of tuna larvae in the world’s oceans, and examine interspecific differences in the light of adult behaviors and larval ecology. We also examine the challenges of sustainably managing species which migrate across multiple management...
Is climate change an unforeseen, irresistible and external factor–A force majeure in marine environmental law?
The European Union Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) has a pivotal role in managing EU marine waters. This paper analyses natural causes and force majeure provisions of the MFSD and other marine legislation, and addresses their interaction with climate change...
Jellyfish blooms perception in Mediterranean finfish aquaculture
Bosch-Belmar et al (2017)
Marine Policy
Small-scale coastal fisheries in European Seas are not what they were: ecological, social and economic change
Lloret et al (2016)
Marine Policy
Unmasking Aurelia species in the Mediterranean Sea: an integrative morphometric and molecular approach
Scorrano et al (2016)
Zoological Journal of the Linnean Society
Is climate change an unforeseen, irresistible and external factor – a force majeure in marine environmental law?
Saul et al (2016)
Marine Pollution Bulletin 113:25-35
Impacts and effects of ocean warming on jellyfish
Representatives of gelatinous zooplankton are increasingly reported in large numbers, with more than 1000 species worldwide, including Cnidaria, Ctenophora and Thaliacea, often collectively known as " jellyfish " The resulting patterns should see a stable situation at...
Estimating the ecological, economic and social impacts of ocean acidification and warming on UK fisheries
Here, available observational and experimental data, theoretical, and modelling approaches are combined to project and quantify potential effects of OAW on the future fisheries catches and resulting revenues and employment in the UK under different CO2 emission...
Concurrent environmental stressors and jellyfish stings impair caged European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) physiological performances
Bosch-Belmar et al (2017)
Frontiers in Marine Science
Jellyfish Stings Trigger Gill Disorders and Increased Mortality in Farmed Sparus aurata (Linnaeus, 1758) in the Mediterranean Sea
We investigated the effects of P. noctiluca envenomations on the gilthead sea bream Sparus aurata by in vivo laboratory assays. Results show P. noctiluca swarms may represent a high risk for Mediterranean finfish aquaculture farms, generating significant gill damage...
Jellyfish Stings Trigger Gill Disorders and Increased Mortality in Farmed Sparus aureate (Linnaeus, 1758) in the Mediterranean Sea
Bosch-Belmar et al (2016)
PlosOne
Funding
This project receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 678193 (CERES, Climate Change and European Aquatic Resources). The content of this website does not reflect the official opinion of the European Union. Responsibility for the information and views expressed therein lies entirely with the author(s).
March 2016 - February 2020 I 5.6 Mio Euros .
Contact
CERES Office Universität Hamburg, Germany
Professor Dr. Myron Peck, scientific coordinator
Anastasia Walter, project manager
Phone +49 40 42 838 9891
Email contact@ceresproject.eu
Twitter @ceresproject_eu