In this study, high resolution, downscaled shelf seas climate projections for the north-west European shelf were nested within lower resolution global projections, to understand how the distribution of harmful algae may change by the mid to end of century.
Projections suggest that the habitat of most species (defined by temperature, salinity, depth, and stratification) will shift north this century, with suitability increasing in the central and northern North Sea. An increase in occurrence here might lead to more frequent detrimental blooms if wind, irradiance and nutrient levels are also suitable. Prioritizing monitoring of species in these susceptible areas could help in establishing early-warning systems for aquaculture and health protection schemes.
Townhill BL, Tinker J, Jones M, Pitois S, Creach V, Simpson SD, Dye S, Bear E, Pinnegar JK. Harmful algal blooms and climate change: exploring future distribution changes. ICES Journal of Marine Science. 2018 Sep 11;75(6):1882-93.