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Marine and inland aquaculture and fisheries need in different ways to adapt to a future with climate change, although it is still unclear how this will take form exactly. Potential change within these sectors is what is explored in the CERES project. Given uncertainties and risks, and the importance of the stakeholder opinions along these developments, stakeholders are involved throughout the process. Throughout the research process we conduct face-to-face interviews, questionnaire surveys, and arrange workshops with stakeholders, in addition to providing new information at the end of the project time.

CERES will suggest solutions and tools for specific regions, sectors and economies. Your business can benefit from our results. Are you a stakeholder and interested in contributing to CERES? Please contact the CERES office or register in our database.

Scenarios describing future society and economy

Future developments in governance, society, technology and economy may be just as important to fisheries and aquaculture as climate-driven changes in habitats and species.

CERES uses a suite of future socio-political imagined futures (=scenarios) in all modeling exercises. These scenarios are founded on discussions with stakeholders.

Contact: John Pinnegar (john.pinnegar@cefas.co.uk)

Questions that will be discussed with stakeholders:

Fisheries in 2050 under the four scenarios – what will happen to

  • the goal for European fisheries, e.g. maximize sustainable, economic, social or ecological yield?
  • the quota system, e.g. unrestricted free trading or strict (sub)national quotas?
  • the controls on environmentally damaging fishing practices or the spatial and seasonal closures?
  • the space sharing between marine users, e.g. windfarms, marine protected areas – who will have precedence?
  • the trade and competition with European countries and elsewhere in the world?
  • the costs in the industry, e.g. for energy, gear, insurance, loans, crew?
  • the demand for wild-caught seafood in Europe?

Aquaculture in 2050 under the four scenarios – what will happen to

  • the goal for European aquaculture: e.g. national food security, international trade, sustainability?
  • the interaction with other industries on land, e.g. agricultural run-off, pollution, disease/pathogen transferral?
  • the governance and oversight in the aquaculture industry?
  • the trans-shipment and movement of stock between facilities?
  • the balance between freshwater and marine aquaculture systems, onshore vs offshore?
  • the space sharing between marine users, e.g. windfarms, marine protected areas – who will have precedence?
  • the trade and competition with European countries and elsewhere in the world?
  • the costs in the industry, e.g. for energy, equipment, insurance, loans, feed availability, access to space?
  • the demand for farmed seafood in Europe?

Used social, economical and political scenarios:

Please read our glossy card for more information on the scenarios.

Fisheries and wider socio-economic modelling

CERES will adress the impact of climate change on European fisheries.

Socio-economic models are developed and applied regionally in close cooperation with stakeholders.

Contact: Katell Hamon (katell.hamon@wur.nl)

Fisheries included

  • roundfish and pelagics of the Barents and Norwegian Seas, and small pelagics of North-East Atlantic
  • mixed fish of the Baltic Sea and demersal roundfish and flatfish of the North Sea
  • small pelagics of the Bay of Biscay
  • pelagics and mixed demersal of the Mediterrean Sea (including tuna)

Future changes considered

  • spatial distribution and productivity (e.g. northward migration of some species)
  • access to fishing grounds (e.g. governance may allocate more area to renewable energy)
  • global economic environment (e.g. competition will influence energy & fish prices)
  • national economic structures (e.g. trade, production technology and consumer demand)

Consequences addressed

  • How sensitive are the respective fisheries to change?
  • How will fishing effort, catch composition and economic performance be influenced?
  • How strong is the wider economic impact, e.g. on revenue and employment by associated sectors?
  • How will trade flows of seafood products influence in the international dependencies within Europe?

Stakeholders are invited

  • to contribute to simulation development with case-specific knowledge (e.g. species to include, adaptability of fleets)
  • to help develop the scenarios for each case (e.g. likely regions for area closures)
  • to provide feedback on intermediate results to allow for adjustment of the models
  • to use the final results and solutions to prepare for climate induced changes

Risk and solution mapping and mitigation options

CERES identifies and assesses the risks, opportunities and uncertainties of climate change effects on European marine and inland fisheries and aquaculture using conceptual models.

These decision tools will support a wide range of end users (farmers, fishers and policy makers) and enable adaptive management towards more resilient fisheries and aquaculture.

Contact: Mike Elliott (mike.elliott@hull.ac.uk)

Generic conceptual models – the bow-tie models – are modified in dialogue with industry stakeholders, who will provide feedback on relevant region and sector-specific components of the bow-tie diagrams, including:

  • threats due to climate change causing a main event e.g., losses to a particularly industry
  • suitable prevention measures limiting the severity of the main event
  • to identify the consequences of the main event occurring
  • mitigation measures aimed at minimizing those consequences

Predicting consequences of climate change for the fishing and aquaculture sector involves large uncertainties. Therefore, CERES uses a modelling approach – a Bayesian Belief Network – which uses probabilities instead of absolute numbers to generate predictions. These networks combine the scientific information with the expert knowledge in order to make informed decisions on how to best exploit the resources sustainably into the future.

Get involved in CERES  - get deeper insights:

funding

flag_yellow_high KopieThis project receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 678193 (CERES, Climate Change and European Aquatic Resources). The content of this website does not reflect the official opinion of the European Union. Responsibility for the information and views expressed therein lies entirely with the author(s). March 2016 - February 2020 I  5.6 Mio Euros .

contact

CERES Office Universität Hamburg Germany Coordinated by Prof. Myron Peck Phone      +49 40 42838 9891 Email        contact@ceresproject.eu