CERESClimate change and European Aquatic RESources
Future changes in climatic conditions will directly and indirectly impact on European fisheries and aquaculture, both on target species as well as their habitat. In support of European Blue Growth, CERES’ tools and solutions will help prepare for these coming changes.
Ceres in a nutshell
The CERES project – named after the Roman goddess of agriculture and fertility – is devoted to the questions as to how climate change willl influence Europe´s fish and shellfish resources and how industry can adapt to and benefit from future change.
CERES will project future changes in physical conditions of marine and inland waters relevant for fisheries and aquaculture industries.
Biological models will scale up physiological and ecological responses of target species to estimate future changes in the productivity of fish and shellfish resources.
Based on future social and economic scenarios, CERES will estimate consequences for the marine and inland fisheries and aquaculture industries.
risks & vulnerability
CERES will assess risks, adaptive capacity and vulnerability of European fisheries and aquaculture sectors using different conceptual models.
CERES will provide viable “bottom-up” (industry-driven) solutions to minimize the risks and maximize potential benefits of climate change. CERES will also provide “top-down (policy & management) solutions and highlight challenges where current governance structures may hinder future adaptation.
Questions for CERES
CERES will adress the following questions:
How will the key physical and biogeochemical features (including habitat loss) of marine and inland waters change in a future climate?
Which current or emerging species will be the most profitable and environmentally sustainable to culture in light of climate change considering the wide range of farming structures and systems?
fish stock shifts
When and how far (to the north and/or to greater depths) will European marine fish stocks shift?
How can their dependent fisheries respond at different time and geographical scales and in different regions?
How will inland fisheries be affected by climate change, e.g. in fish community dynamics, productivity and invasiveness of introduced species?
fish stock yield
What are the implications for fish stocks and their fisheries of climate-driven changes in ecosystem-level multi-species interactions and productivity?
What are the likely changes in fishery/fleet behaviour given the above changes?
How will interacting policy measures (e.g., discard ban, closed seasons and areas) influence these fleet activities?
winner and losers
In specific regions, which historical or new species will emerge as potential winners and losers (biologically and economically) in the light of climate change? How can aquaculture and fisheries reap the benefits of the emerging winners?
mitigation and early warning
Which early warning techniques can protect against climate-driven increases in the frequency of events such as harmful algal blooms, jellyfish outbreaks, the spread of pathogens or episodes of coastal hypoxia?
policy and management
What policy changes can increase the scope and enhance the profits of fisheries and aquaculture in the short-, medium- and long-term while still safeguarding the health and productivity of marine and inland habitats in a future climate?
Who will benefit from CERES
Over 50% of high-value fisheries and over 90% high-value aquaculture targets in European marine and inland waters are included in the CERES species groups. All industries dependent on these species groups can directly benefit from suggested solutions.
CERES works across:
marine fisheries, marine aquaculture, inland fisheries and inland aquaculture
demersal and pelagic fisheries, purse seine and longline, on-bottom and suspended cultures, sea cages and coastal ponds, semi-intensive and extensive farming in marine and inland waters
top economic targets, e.g. small pelagics, gadoids, flatfishes, tuna, salmon, seabream, seabass, mussels, oysters, clams, trout, carp as well as emerging species
from high latitude oceans down to the Mediterranean and in European inland waters
Why we need industry
CERES very much wants and needs the industry perspective at an early stage in the project. This input is collected via personal interaction (workshops, focus groups and interviews) and correspondence. If you want to get involved into CERES activities please register to the CERES database.
scenarios describing future society and economy
CERES utilizes models to estimate economic developments in Europe´s fishery and aquaculture which are based on a few, pre-defined physical and socio-economical future scenarios. These future scenarios will be specified by industry partners and stakeholders within the first year of CERES (e.g. fish prices, fuel prices, technological advancements, regional policy issues, etc.).
real world data and road testing
Expertise of producers, farmers and fishermen and public administrators will be integrated into CERES tools, e.g. by incorporating fleet behavior in regional fisheries models or by harnessing economic data in a “typical farm” approach for regional aquaculture models. Industry feedback and dialog is needed on these tools – during their set-up and to evaluate their results at the middle and final stage of the project – to make their outputs most relevant for these Blue Growth sectors.
risk and solution mapping and mitigation options
CERES uses a mind-mapping exercise, which lets industry pinpoint how climate change might impact on their sector and what mitigation measures could be taken. Based on the input of involved industry, generic bow-tie diagram will first be adapted to sector, economy, region and species. Then risks and opportunities are quantified using Bayesian Belief Networks. Industry perceptions of mitigation options will also play a role in the calculation of adaptive capacity and vulnerability of each sector.
Learn more about stakeholder involvement in CERES.
Who we are
The CERES consortium has a wide geographic coverage across all key European marine and inland waters.
It involves 11 large multidisciplinary aquatic research institutes, 8 universities and 7 industry partners (SMEs – small to medium sized enterprises).
The SMEs comprise fish-producer and processor organisations (pelagic and demersal wild-capture fisheries) and operators of large and small-scale aquaculture facilities, aquaculture farmer organizations, and consultancies.
Learn more about the CERES consortium.
Get involved in CERES - get deeper insights:
This project receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 678193 (CERES, Climate Change and European Aquatic Resources). The content of this website does not reflect the official opinion of the European Union. Responsibility for the information and views expressed therein lies entirely with the author(s). March 2016 - February 2020 I 5.6 Mio Euros .