CERES researchers validated and analyzed an ensemble of regional climate change scenarios for the North Sea.

Towards the end of the 21st century the projected North Sea SST increases by 1.5 ∘C (RCP 2.6), 2 ∘C (RCP 4.5), and 4 ∘C (RCP 8.5), respectively. Under this change the North Sea develops a specific pattern of the climate change signal for the air–sea temperature difference and latent heat flux in the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios.

They determined that the most likely cause for an increased latent heat loss in the central western North Sea is a drier atmosphere towards the end of the century. Drier air in the lee of the British Isles affects the balance of the surface heat budget of the North Sea. This effect is an example of how regional characteristics modulate global climate change. For climate change projections on regional scales it is important to resolve processes and feedbacks at regional scales.

Dieterich C, Wang S, Schimanke S, Gröger M, Klein B, Hordoir R, Samuelsson P, Liu Y, Axell L, Höglund A, Meier HE. Surface heat budget over the North Sea in climate change simulations. Atmosphere. 2019 May;10(5):272.