This study focused on one of the most threatened coastal seas, the Baltic Sea, and estimated uncertainties in projections due to climate model deficiencies and due to unknown future greenhouse gas concentration, nutrient load and sea level rise scenarios. To address the latter, simulations of the period 1975–2098 were performed using the initial conditions from an earlier reconstruction with the same Baltic Sea model (starting in 1850).

The analysis of simulated primary production, nitrogen fixation, and hypoxic areas shows that uncertainties caused by the various nutrient load scenarios are greater than the uncertainties due to climate model uncertainties and future greenhouse gas concentrations. In all scenario simulations, a proposed nutrient load abatement strategy, i.e., the Baltic Sea Action Plan, will lead to a significant improvement in the overall environmental state.

Saraiva S, Meier HE, Andersson H, Höglund A, Dieterich C, Gröger M, Hordoir R, Eilola KJ. Uncertainties in projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem driven by an ensemble of global climate models. Frontiers in Earth Science. 2018;6:244.