It has proven extremely challenging for researchers to predict with confidence how human societies might develop in the future, yet managers and industries need to make projections in order to test adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to build resilience to long-term shocks.
In this paper CERES scientists introduce exploratory scenarios with a particular focus on European aquaculture and fisheries and describes how these scenarios were designed. Short-, medium- and long-term developments in socio-political drivers may be just as important in determining profits, revenues and prospects in the aquaculture and fisheries industries as physical drivers such as long-term climate change. Four socio-political-economic futures were developed, based partly on the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) framework and partly on the newer system of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). ‘
Pinnegar JK, Hamon KG, Kreiss C, Tabeau A, Rybicki S, Papathanasopoulou E, Engelhard GH, Eddy TD, Peck MA. Future socio-political scenarios for aquatic resources in Europe: a common framework based on shared-socioeconomic-pathways (SSPs). Frontiers in Marine Science. 2020;7:1096.